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A mere 60 days in the past that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as his coach berated him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was if his performances were an indicator or the source for the team's broader struggles.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

This weekend, however, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. After the England international curled home his second strike to restore Villa's lead, Emery tore off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Serious Hopefuls?

That’s a particularly tough proposition to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing in many games, while the wins have piled up.

According to the data, twice all season have Villa posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a team that have put together 10 in a row, they look weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are going in their favour.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with a couple of precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it happened in London, and it happened against Manchester United.

Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, curled just inside the upright from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Can It Last?

Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opponents registered more shots and more efforts on goal. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those games.

A statistical correction could be the biggest rival they have to face in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers forever.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still return to peak condition.

• The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
• The attacking talent may rediscover the force he resembled in Germany.
• The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.

Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.

This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. When the hero positioned himself before the home supporters after the match orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.