🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market Participant Earned $436K from Bets on Maduro's Downfall. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A trader profited close to $500,000 on the ouster of Venezuela's president shortly prior to it was publicly declared, leading to inquiries about potential gains made from confidential information of the event. Changing Odds in Predictions Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a blockchain-based service, that the leader would be removed from office by the month's conclusion rose in the period preceding former President Trump announced on the weekend that the president had been seized. A particular user, which became a member in December and took four positions, all on Venezuela, made more than $436,000 from a starting bet of $32,537. Who placed the bet is a mystery. The user had only a cryptographic address for identification. Probability Spikes Before Public Statement Platform data shows that traders put the odds of Maduro's exit at just 6.5% in the midday period of the Friday before the event. However the odds had jumped to eleven percent by the end of the day and spiked dramatically in the early hours of the next day, suggesting a sharp shift in market sentiment just before the public announcement was made. "That trade has all the signs of a bet based on non-public details," commented an industry expert. A small number of other traders also profited large payouts from bets on the same outcome. Legal Questions Grows Some lawmakers are beginning to pay attention. Proposed legislation presented on recently would prevent federal workers from participating on forecasting platforms if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a market. Industry Context Prediction markets have grown significantly in the United States, with traders able to bet on everything from sports to current affairs. This sector faced scrutiny under the last presidential term. However it has experienced less resistance during the Trump presidency. Trading on insider information is a crime in the traditional financial markets, but there are less oversight in the event betting arena. A company executive for another major platform said their site "explicitly prohibits trading on insider information of any form."