A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
